“Ed Peters takes our most cherished beliefs, turns them upside down, and convinces us they’re much better that way.” - Ian Stewart

I’ve been a market researcher, author and practitioner for over 40 years. (My LinkedIn page has a full run down on my experience). I’ve now retired from asset management, but I realized that aside from relationships, performing and publishing research has been the most satisfying part of my career. A good deal of this gratification comes from seeing my books and publications inspire others to do their own work. But Gertrude Stein supposedly said, “Nothing stinks more than a pile of unpublished writing,” and I feel the same goes for research. Much of the work I’ve done over the last 15 years has gone unpublished. So this site is a continuation of my journey learning and communicating about markets for the last 40+ years.

This body of unpublished research created market cycle and regime indicators that linked together generate a model that explains, and usually anticipates, changes in the market environment. My approach integrates traditional capital market theory, chaos theory, fractals, fuzzy sets and behavioral finance through the lens of my own practical experience as a multi-asset manager to create an overall market climatology. Using this information I can offer commentary, research and insight to help you understand the current market state and how that may affect your investments and possibly your livelihood. I also wish to inform you of the market climatology model so you can incorporate this approach into your own investment strategies and/or research if you so choose. A large part of this site is a hypertext book which is an introduction to the concepts behind Fractal Market Cycles and Regimes. The hypertext book is a public resource for you to use as you see fit. Unlike traditionally published books, Fractal Market Cycles and Regimes will change over time as the full website evolves.

The Service

There are four levels of service:

• Free: Free access to my weekly (or more often if needed) blog where I discuss the current market state as well as offer commentary on market events.  This includes access to some previously published papers and the Hypertext Book  which are available to the public. The blog requires a sign-up but is free. Posts are delivered by email as well as posted on the web site. There is also a dashboard of the market climatology indicators.

• Supporter: Contributing a modest amount helps keeps this publication going. Supporters also receive a monthly newsletter containing more detailed commentary using the regime/cycle indicators and their sub-components as they evolve over the market cycle as well as new research papers which will be extensions of the hypertext book. Like the blog there is email delivery as well as web site posts. Supporters also have exclusive access to a multi-asset model portfolio given the current market state.

• Customized Analysis: Scenario and risk analysis of a multi-asset portfolio of your choice for a fee. Pricing depends upon the scope of the analysis. Contact me for details.

• Speaking Engagements: I am available for speaking to group gatherings or on the media. I am an experienced public speaker and have appeared on CNBC, Bloomberg TV and Radio, NPR and various blogs. Contact me.

Going Forward

The Hypertext Book introduces the ideas behind Fractal Market Cycles and Regimes. Being hypertext, it is much shorter than a regular paper publication but will hopefully encourage you to take a deeper dive as the research continues. Since it uses hypertext links, you can read through the ideas in a non-linear way and follow your own path. Or you can read straight through the chapters. It’s up to you. I would very much appreciate feedback on these ideas.

I do not offer trading advice or stock tips at any level of service as disclosed here. I offer knowledge and insight. I will discuss the implications the current climate has for asset classes and sectors. You can take that knowledge and use it as you will for your own edification and/or investment strategies.

My goal is to help you make more informed investment decisions as well as stimulate discussion which will lead to new research.  With others we can create a community that works together to better understand the markets.

Markets are ever changing systems.  As such, the market problem is not conducive to “closed form solutions” where there is one right “optimal” answer.  Instead, there are multiple possible solutions which evolve over time. It’s often less than satisfying to learn that there is no single answer, but that’s the way things are.  Let’s explore this reality together.